So, in continuing with the MLB preview posts we’ve done (5 Pitchers that will come back to earth, 5 Breakout/Bounceback Pitchers), this post is going to look at 5 Breakout Hitters (plus a couple bonus ones) in 2012.
Jesus Montero
Nobody fucks with The Jesus
Montero joins teammate Justin Smoak (more on him in a minute) on this list and it might be dangerous to be predicting breakouts for two guys who play in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league, but oh well. Montero was dealt to the Mariners in a deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees and will fill the gaping hole that the Mariners have had at DH (or maybe catcher) for years. His hitting ability has never been in doubt as he has torched the minors to the tune of a .308/.366/.501 line with 76 home runs across 5 seasons where he was considered young for each level he was at. He continued in the majors in a cameo with the Yankees last September where in 69 at bats he put up an absurd .421 wOBA (very small sample size, but impressive nonetheless). The Yankees dealt him because there are serious doubts as to whether he can play catcher full time, they already have an absurd offense and needed pitching (and Pineda had a very good rookie year last year). What there is absolutely no doubt of, however, is that Montero can rake. He’s still just 22, but the Mariners are going to throw him into the lineup everyday as either DH or catcher and he’s finally going to get a chance to display the skills he showed in the minors, regardless of what position he plays.
Cameron Maybin
Reyes, Maybin and Hanley woulda been quite the 1-2-3 for the Marlins...oops
Maybin has had a weird career so far. He was an elite prospect for the Tigers, was dealt to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade, struggled mightily in 2 years for the Marlins in the majors (.311 and .299 wOBAs), while lighting up the minors whenever they sent him down. The Marlins then gave up on him despite him being only 23 and dealt him to San Diego for 2 relief pitchers. The Padres handed Maybin the starting centerfield job last year and he quietly had a nice little year with a .264/.323/.393 line with a .325 wOBA, 8 home runs and 30 steals. I think the main reasons for this are cutting down on his K’s (28% K rate in 2010 down to 22 last year) and simply knowing that he had an everyday job. He’s never going to hit for a ton of power (especially in Petco, one of the worst hitters parks in the league), but I think he’ll get to mid-double digits this year along with loads of doubles and triples, while continuing to get on base more, which will allow him to further show of his speed, which is his best asset.
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt tore up the minors for Arizona in 2010 (.424 wOBA with 35 HRs) and 2011 (.457 wOBA with 30 HRs) before being called up and playing in about a third of the season for the D’Backs where he held his own nicely with a .333 OBP, .474 SLG, .356 wOBA and 8 home runs in 48 games. He won’t hit for a high average (his high averages in the minors were fueled by an insanely high BABIP) and he strikes out a lot (29.9 K%…which he has to cut down on), but he draws walks and hits for a ton of power. I see him in the long run as an Adam Dunn-type (before Dunn died last year) where he hits 40 HRs, with a .250 AVG and a ton of walks. He won’t get to 40 this year, but he’ll get to 30.
Brett Lawrie
Lawrie is a beast and a native Canadian...not a bad combo for the Jays
Lawrie was traded from the Brewers to the Blue Jays last offseason in exchange for Shaun Marcum, and while Marcum pitched very well for the Brew Crew last year, they probably regret sending Lawrie back to his homeland of Canada. Lawrie has crushed every level of pro baseball he’s played at, including the majors last year. Had a wrist injury not cut his year short, he probably would have had a breakout year already in his rookie year. In his debut with the Jays last year, he hit .293/.373/.580 with a .413 wOBA and 9 HRs in 170 at bats. Its obviously a small sample, but his .413 wOBA would have ranked 5th in the entire league last year. This kid is gonna be a superstar and it will start this year, as he’ll be the starting third baseman for the Jays at just age 22 and he’ll pick up right where he left off last year.
Jason Heyward
Heyward started his career in 2010 as a 20 year old phenom, starting the All Star game, putting up a extremely impressive for his age .376 wOBA and narrowly losing out to Buster Poser for NL Rookie of the Year. He followed that up with a nightmare season last year, adding too much muscle in the offseason and battling shoulder injuries all year leading to a .314 wOBA in 218 games. Heyward showed up much leaner this year, is a phenomenal athlete and is a Justin Upton-like talent and his Upton’s age 22 season, he put up a .388 wOBA with 26 home runs and that’s the type of upside Heyward has this year. Last year was Heyward’s first bad year as a baseball player and I don’t think he’s going to to continue down that path.
The “This Year’s Alex Gordon” Division
I’m calling my 2 bonus guys on this list The “This Year’s Alex Gordon Division” because of what happened with Gordon in 2011. After tearing up college baseball at Nebraska, becoming the 2nd overall pick in 2005 and tearing up the minors, Gordon was hyped as “The Next George Brett” (No pressure or anything!) and the savior of the Royals. He was decent in his debut in ’07 and good in ’08, but then his numbers got worse each year in ’09 and ’10, bouncing back and forth between the minors and majors and bottoming out with a .294 wOBA at age 26 in 2010. Considered a bust heading into 2011, Gordon broke out with a .303/.376/.502 line with a .382 wOBA and 27 home runs. I think these guys could take a Gordon-type leap this year after a lot of the hype has worn off.
Justin Smoak
The other Smoke Monster. If Smoak sucks this year maybe this is his alternate timeline and he's been dead the whole time. Spoiler Alert.
“The Smoak Monster” (I gave him that nickname in honor of The Smoke Monster in LOST. If you’re reading this in 2078 and want to watch a great show, go get the series DVD set of LOST and watch everything up until the last 15 minutes of the series finale) was the trade chip that went from Texas to Seattle in exchange for Cliff Lee and has torn up the minors, while struggling to get going in the majors so far (posting wOBA’s of .300 in 2010 and .319 last year). He looked to be breaking out last April when he put up a fantastic .394 wOBA, but then struggled for the majority of the rest of year with personal issues (the death of his father) and tough luck injuries (he broke his thumb and then when he finally came back, took a groundball to the face and broke his nose). He was healthy again in September and posted a .350 wOBA. He’s still just 26, has the minor league track record, the plate discipline (his career BB% is 11.4, major league average is around 8%), the pressure should be off him this year with everyone focused on the arrival of Jesus Montero and I think The Smoak Monster could be in store for some big things this year, despite playing in one of the worst hitters parks in the league.
Colby Rasmus
Rasmus was a highly touted prospect for the Cardinals (5th best in all of baseball in 2008, 3rd in 2009) and seemingly enjoyed breakout season in 2010 when he went .276/.361/.498 with a .366 wOBA and 23 HRs at age 24, but his weird relationship with manager Tony LaRussa lead to him being yanked in and out of the lineup and eventually traded (in a trade that many, including me, thought was crazy at the time, but it ended up helping the Cards win the World Series so what the hell do I know?) to the Blue Jays. All of this lead to a rough year for Rasmus and a .225/.298/.391 with a .302 wOBA. In his good year in 2010, his BABIP was an insane .354 and in his bad year last year, it was a terrible .267. That should normalize to around .300 (the league average) this year, and his K rate (dropped from 27% to 22%) should continue to improve as well. He’ll turn just 26 in August and given his talent, that he had a half season to adjust to the AL last year, not having to worry about being yanked in and out of the lineup every other day and moving to one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the league, Rasmus should show his excellent power/speed combo and on base skills this year.
Wily Mo Moonshot 